Usually it's sunspots that release a coronal mass ejection (CME). They rotate around the sun every 27 days. However, a sunspot can last a few hours, days, or weeks. As we track sunspots around the sun we are able to make predictions about their past behaviours.Β Β
With this information we are able to give a long range forecast.
Use this calendar as a guide but note that as the date ranges further out we cannot guarantee accuracy of this report.
How this works:
We use the geomagnetic planetary A index (Ap). This gives us an overall indication of geomagnetic activity and a measure of the storminess of the Earthβs magnetic field.
The Ap index is a cousin to the much loved Kp. The Ap Ranges from 0 to 400.
Although this is an overall indication it does not always mean activity. This is why we touch on the finer details in our dashboard and table the day of the event to give us better results in tracking aurora activity.
This data is provided by NOAA and Australian Bureau of Metrology